This is such an interesting analysis of Stefan, I found your ideas about those first few lines so intriguing, it does form a basis that I previously dismissed (I tend to ignore the pilot, and the first three or four episodes of this show because to me it feels that the show is trying to find its feet, and so deeper analysis may end up being misleading) but it does shine a light on an important aspect of Stefan's psyche.

I think Stefan's manipulations are sometimes scarily passive, it's almost in the things he doesn't do, and much more in what he says. Made all the more persuasive because of the genuineness of Stefan's feelings; for example what you said about Stefan opening by telling Elena he was worried about what she'd think to manipulate her, I've no doubt that was a genuine concern on his part, but that only makes the manipulation--which he is perfectly aware he's doing--all the more potent.

Also, what you said about Stefan lying to himself, creating this image of himself, manipulating himself, I agree so much. He's got this odd duality, wherein on one hand he's incredibly self aware but on the other hand uses that self awareness to manipulate himself, and uses his perception of others to manipulate others. He believes he is what he makes himself, and therefore his words aren't just manipulation but somehow are the truth. He has become the lie and made it true.